Source: fuelcellsworks.com
IRENA forecasts that green hydrogen and its derivatives will meet 20% of global demand by 2050, with the US, China, Australia, and Latin America emerging as top exporters-shaped heavily by financing conditions.
Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia are expected to become the largest importers, requiring $2.49 trillion in infrastructure investments to enable trade.
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has identified the US, China, Australia, and Latin America as the future powerhouses of green hydrogen exports by 2050-driven less by resource quality and more by access to low-cost capital. This finding comes from a detailed assessment of 35 countries and regions, analysing production costs, expected demand, and transport economics across two capital cost scenarios.
In its "Same WACC" scenario-assuming a global 5% cost of capital-regions like Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa are the most competitive due to excellent solar and wind resources. However, the "Differentiated WACC" scenario, which reflects actual risk-adjusted capital costs, shifts the competitive edge to countries with stronger financial frameworks like Australia, China, and the US, despite some having higher production costs.
Europe: The Import Epicentre
Europe is projected to be the largest green hydrogen importer, with Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia also showing significant import demand. By 2050, global green hydrogen trade could hit 260 million tonnes (Mt) of H₂-equivalent. Ammonia will be the dominant traded commodity, accounting for 30% of global demand, followed by e-methanol (18%), gaseous hydrogen (14.4%), and direct reduced iron (DRI) (14%).
North Africa alone could supply 18% of Europe's H₂ needs, delivering a mix of ammonia (5 Mt), compressed hydrogen (3.2 Mt), and methanol (0.8 Mt). Meanwhile, Latin America and Africa are expected to play critical roles in the DRI trade, benefiting steelmaking industries across import-dependent regions.
A $2.49 Trillion Buildout
IRENA warns that establishing the necessary infrastructure for this green hydrogen trade boom will require a $2.49 trillion investment-covering 4.7 TW of renewables, 2.1 TW of electrolyser capacity, and 0.9 TWh of storage. Nearly half the capital will go to renewable generation, followed by conversion plants and transport networks, especially ammonia carriers and pipeline infrastructure.
The Role of Finance and Policy
According to IRENA, cost of capital is the decisive variable in shaping global hydrogen competitiveness. "Variations in WACC directly affect trade flows," the report notes, altering the outlook even between countries with similar energy resources.
For e-methanol, IRENA highlights that access to biogenic CO₂ (e.g., from agriculture or waste) will be a limiting factor, making regions with poor carbon access dependent on imports or high-cost direct air capture (DAC) technologies.
